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Bundle: 566
Archive-Message-Number: 7105
Subject: TNE:What Does the Future
From: [-- REDACTED --] (Jeff Zeitlin)
Date: Mon, 28 Mar 94 17:26:00 -0500

Subject: TNE:What Does the Future Hold?

  Path of Tears (an excellent RC sourcebook, in my opinion) gives
  us a look at some of the psychology that drives the Reformation 
  Coalition, and a glimpse of the kind of interstellar state that 
  they (and presumably the Hivers) want.  The information that we 
  have on the Regency, though scantier, implies that the Regency 
  will be fundamentally based on the old Third Imperium model, with 
  some modifications.  I see a conflict of fundamental ideas 
  coming.

  The 3I (Third Imperium) model was one in which planets were 
  allowed to have whatever kind of government and social system 
  they desired, subject to only loose constraints (no slavery, no 
  nukes, honor extrality...).  Additionally, Imperial interference 
  in internal matters (revolutions, coups, etc.) was (at least 
  theoretically) nil.  The RC model appears to be strongly 
  anti-theocracy and anti-despotism, and aiding one side or another 
  in a local conflict appears not to be \mallum in se\.

  What will happen when these two states (the Regency and the RC) 
  come into contact, as they inevitably will?

  One problem that the RC is experiencing, and will probably 
  continue to experience for a long time to come, is the need for 
  high technology, without having the technological and industrial 
  base to meet those needs.  They will aid lower tech planets in 
  "seeding" a technological/industrial base, but it is simply not 
  possible to force-grow such a base beyond the current sustainable 
  technology level - a thorough understanding of one level of 
  technology and a strong industrial base built on that level are 
  required before it is possible to build into the next technology 
  level.  As planetary populations grow, and centers of learning 
  and industry develop, the sustainable technology level will rise.  
  The likely result of this is a RC with a high-tech center, with 
  the tech level gradually tapering off proportional to distance 
  from Aubaine.  This will lead to a situation much like we see on 
  Terra today, with over-industrialized nations experiencing 
  economic problems due to commodity manufacturing being done 
  "offshore," and in those "offshore" planets, a great deal of 
  exploitation of resources, including human resources, and a 
  generally lower (possibly much lower) standard of living.  
  Incorporation by the RC of active high-tech cultures will only 
  minimally alleviate this problem, providing small local regions 
  with higher standards of living.  However, these cultures, once 
  admitted to the RC, will almost certainly have their economies 
  and manufacturing bases distorted by a need to "feed" the central 
  areas of the RC.  Assuming freedom of travel from one world to 
  another, we're looking at the ghettoization of space, with all of 
  its attendant problems (again, look at present-day Terra for 
  examples of what can happen).

  The Regency will also have the same kind of high-tech center, 
  because the center did not lose the technology in the first 
  place.  However, the Regency will have access to the Jumpstart 
  caches, which will allow a more even development of the 
  technological and industrial base - or, the Regency can do 
  nothing, and allow the reintegrated areas to develop on their 
  own.  In either case, the Regency is likely to have less of a 
  ghettoization problem, as they have no need to scavenge high 
  technology, and their expansion is not driven by a need to import 
  from an external market.  High tech centers will develop, but not 
  in such a way that they will be driven to focus on serving the 
  needs of an already extant high-tech area.

  Does the RC know that the Regency and the other Spinward states 
  exist?  Do the Hivers?  Does the Regency know about the survival 
  of the Hive Federation?  About the RC?

  At this point in time, we must assume that the answer to all of 
  these questions is "no" and that both the Regency and the RC will 
  develop in their own way, until they meet.  That meeting is 
  likely to occur due to both states attempting to integrate or 
  build forward bases on the same planet.  With such a fundamental 
  difference in outlook, we can expect to see armed conflicts, as 
  the Regency tries to prevent undue interference in the internal 
  affairs of a client or member state, while the RC is trying to 
  mold the state into what they feel is an "appropriate" shape for 
  membership.  Add to this mixture the Guild, which will try to 
  keep both interstellar states out of the picture, and I think 
  we're going to see the (N+1)th Interstellar Wars/Pacification 
  Wars/Wars of Integration/Coalition Wars/Regency Wars/Guild Wars.

  Comments?
==========================================================================
Jeff Zeitlin                                      [-- REDACTED --]
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