------------------------------ Bundle: 566 Archive-Message-Number: 7105 Subject: TNE:What Does the Future From: [-- REDACTED --] (Jeff Zeitlin) Date: Mon, 28 Mar 94 17:26:00 -0500 Subject: TNE:What Does the Future Hold? Path of Tears (an excellent RC sourcebook, in my opinion) gives us a look at some of the psychology that drives the Reformation Coalition, and a glimpse of the kind of interstellar state that they (and presumably the Hivers) want. The information that we have on the Regency, though scantier, implies that the Regency will be fundamentally based on the old Third Imperium model, with some modifications. I see a conflict of fundamental ideas coming. The 3I (Third Imperium) model was one in which planets were allowed to have whatever kind of government and social system they desired, subject to only loose constraints (no slavery, no nukes, honor extrality...). Additionally, Imperial interference in internal matters (revolutions, coups, etc.) was (at least theoretically) nil. The RC model appears to be strongly anti-theocracy and anti-despotism, and aiding one side or another in a local conflict appears not to be \mallum in se\. What will happen when these two states (the Regency and the RC) come into contact, as they inevitably will? One problem that the RC is experiencing, and will probably continue to experience for a long time to come, is the need for high technology, without having the technological and industrial base to meet those needs. They will aid lower tech planets in "seeding" a technological/industrial base, but it is simply not possible to force-grow such a base beyond the current sustainable technology level - a thorough understanding of one level of technology and a strong industrial base built on that level are required before it is possible to build into the next technology level. As planetary populations grow, and centers of learning and industry develop, the sustainable technology level will rise. The likely result of this is a RC with a high-tech center, with the tech level gradually tapering off proportional to distance from Aubaine. This will lead to a situation much like we see on Terra today, with over-industrialized nations experiencing economic problems due to commodity manufacturing being done "offshore," and in those "offshore" planets, a great deal of exploitation of resources, including human resources, and a generally lower (possibly much lower) standard of living. Incorporation by the RC of active high-tech cultures will only minimally alleviate this problem, providing small local regions with higher standards of living. However, these cultures, once admitted to the RC, will almost certainly have their economies and manufacturing bases distorted by a need to "feed" the central areas of the RC. Assuming freedom of travel from one world to another, we're looking at the ghettoization of space, with all of its attendant problems (again, look at present-day Terra for examples of what can happen). The Regency will also have the same kind of high-tech center, because the center did not lose the technology in the first place. However, the Regency will have access to the Jumpstart caches, which will allow a more even development of the technological and industrial base - or, the Regency can do nothing, and allow the reintegrated areas to develop on their own. In either case, the Regency is likely to have less of a ghettoization problem, as they have no need to scavenge high technology, and their expansion is not driven by a need to import from an external market. High tech centers will develop, but not in such a way that they will be driven to focus on serving the needs of an already extant high-tech area. Does the RC know that the Regency and the other Spinward states exist? Do the Hivers? Does the Regency know about the survival of the Hive Federation? About the RC? At this point in time, we must assume that the answer to all of these questions is "no" and that both the Regency and the RC will develop in their own way, until they meet. That meeting is likely to occur due to both states attempting to integrate or build forward bases on the same planet. With such a fundamental difference in outlook, we can expect to see armed conflicts, as the Regency tries to prevent undue interference in the internal affairs of a client or member state, while the RC is trying to mold the state into what they feel is an "appropriate" shape for membership. Add to this mixture the Guild, which will try to keep both interstellar states out of the picture, and I think we're going to see the (N+1)th Interstellar Wars/Pacification Wars/Wars of Integration/Coalition Wars/Regency Wars/Guild Wars. Comments? ========================================================================== Jeff Zeitlin [-- REDACTED --] - --- ~ QMPro 1.52 ~ Entropy requires no maintenance ------------------------------