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David Johnson
11-28-2008
04:31 UT
|
Gilmoure wrote:
> I'm inclined to agree with SV shows evidence of slow, peaceful
> decline. A lot of planets from Federation era are still around.
Bingo. Er, . . . I mean, that would be "Beowulf."
> If was full out war, I imagine even the civilized planets would
> have been blasted back to stone age. If you're just after
> destruction, would be real easy for a single ship to fly in and
> drop the big stuff.
I
think this is why the Space Vikings refer to the period from the 11th
to the 13th Centuries as the "Interstellar _Wars_" as opposed to
there having been a single, devastating "Interstellar _War_."
Remember Ashmodai! Remember Belphegor!
David
--
"Our rulers are the barbarians among us. There isn't one of
them
. . . who is devoted to civilization or anything else outside
himself, and that's the mark of the barbarian." - Otto Harkaman (H.
Beam Piper), _Space_Viking_
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David Johnson
11-27-2008
18:49 UT
|
Dietmar Wehr wrote:
> . . . and I'm confused by you're overlooking the
> phrase 'interplanetary war' used to describe the worst case
> scenario.
I'm
not overlooking this phrase; I simply understand that there are
different scales of interstellar warfare. Furthermore, I suspect that
the scale of interstellar warfare may look vastly differently to
Federation-era folks in the aftermath of the System States War--the
first interstellar war in Terro-Human history--than it does to Space
Vikings (or to the Old Federation historians whose libraries and
universities they raided) after "the Interstellar Wars" and centuries
of raiding in the Old Federation.
> Here's the thing. When I read SV, the overall
> impression of the Old Federation is that there are more planets
> that have been blasted back into barbarism than there are
> planets that slowing decayed into barbarism
Really?
What gives you this sense? The survival of "non-civilized" planets
like Beowulf and Amaterasu and Khepera? If there are
eighteen
"civilized" worlds like Marduk in the Old Federation how many "almost
civilized" worlds must there be like Beowulf? Like Amaterasu? Like
Khepera? Yes, we know there were "interstellar wars" in the Old
Federation but given all these worlds where Terro- Humans survive in
conditions not all that different from what we enjoy in the "real
world" today it seems pretty clear there had been nothing like the
"bloody shambles" predicted by Merlin had people been aware of "the
doom of the Federation."
> Now I'm not saying that there were wars continuously all
> during that time, but it certainly sounds like a lot of fighting
> went on which does not sound like a conflict between two
> planets every now and then.
I
imagine it was a series of small scale interstellar wars between
various regional remnants of the Federation--likely each claiming to
be the "true" inheritor of the Federation--and the occasional planet
that was abandoned or split from the Federation. Likely, there were
years in the period from the 11th to the 13th Centuries when there was
no interstellar war and other times when there were multiple wars
going on. But there was never again anything on the scale of the
System States War, much less a conflagration across the entirety of
what had been Federation space.
> Just because Harkaman doesn't mention merlin in SV when he talks
> about the collapse of the Old Federation, doesn't mean that
> knowledge of the impending collapse didn't spread throughout the
> Federation at some point during the 10th-13th centuries.
It's true this is possible, but Uncle Occam reminds us not to make assumptions beyond the evidence we have available to us.
> I, on the other hand, am looking at the whole picture including
> all the devestation that Harkaman encountered or knew about in
> SV
Could
you tells us what this evidence is specifically, and contrast it with
the counter-examples of worlds like Beowulf and Amaterasu?
> Harkaman states that . . . there still isn't more than a dozen and
> a half planets
> in the Old Federation that have hyperdrive technology.
[snip]
> That implies
> stagnation, not recovery which is plausible if whole populations
> had been bombed out of existence by widespread wars.
Well,
it might if there were not so many planets like Beowulf and Amaterasu
and even Khepera which, while not considered "civilized" by the Space
Vikings, are clearly not planets where "whole populations had been
bombed out of existence."
> So bottom line for me is that I'm open to the possibility that
> either Merlin's prediction of decline did become widespread
> after all OR something else triggered the worst case scenario
I
understand, but I still don't see much evidence to support this
conclusion. At the same time, it seems you are required to overlook a
great deal of evidence--planets like Beowulf being the most glaring
example--in order to reach such a conclusion.
> while you are assuming that prior knowledge of the decline was
> not widespread and therefore everything that actually did happen
> must therefore be what Merlin meant by the slow, peaceful decay
> scenario.
Because these seem to fit the evidence available to us the most succinctly.
> I don't see any way of definitively resolving this divergence of
> opinion because Piper didn't explicitly talk about it one way or
> the other.
Perhaps,
but I do think there remains evidence available to us from Beam which
you've not yet considered in drawing your conclusion.
Remember Ashmodai! Remember Belphegor!
David
--
"[R]evolutions don't originate with slaves or starveling
proletarians,
but with men who have enough liberty and material well- being to
realize how much more they ought to have." - Dominic Flandry (Poul
Anderson)
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|
Gilmoure
11-26-2008
15:39 UT
|
I'm inclined to agree with SV shows evidence of slow, peaceful decline. A
lot of planets from Federation era are still around. If was full out
war, I imagine even the civilized planets would have been blasted back
to stone age. If you're just after destruction, would be real easy for a
single ship to fly in and drop the big stuff.
G
On Wed, Nov 26, 2008 at 8:32 AM, QT - Dietmar Wehr <
qtopic-42-tnfVKeAH3s4T@quicktopic.com> wrote:
>
--
Gilmoure
<http://gilmoure.livejournal.com>;
<http://gilmoure.tumblr.com>;
< replied-to message removed by QT >
|
|
Dietmar Wehr
11-26-2008
15:32 UT
|
David,
You're confused by my overlooking the phrase 'occasional
war between planets' and I'm confused by you're overlooking the phrase
'interplanetary war' used to describe the worst case scenario. Here's
the thing. When I read SV, the overall impression of the Old Federation
is that there are more planets that have been blasted back into
barbarism than there are planets that slowing decayed into barbarism and
this seems reasonable if there were interstellar wars going on even
intermittently for at least 101 years if they started at the end of the
11th century and ended at the beginning of the 13th. If they started
earlier and/or ended later, then it's more than 101 years. Now I'm not
saying that there were wars continuously all during that time, but it
certainly sounds like a lot of fighting went on which does not sound
like a conflict between two planets every now and then.
Just
because Harkaman doesn't mention merlin in SV when he talks about the
collapse of the Old Federation, doesn't mean that knowledge of the
impending collapse didn't spread throughout the Federation at some point
during the 10th-13th centuries. There's a saying that goes like this.
"Absence
of evidence is not necessarily evidence of absence." Which means that
your interpretation is based on the assumption that Merlin's gloomy
prediction of decline remained a secret because it's not mentioned in
SV.
I, on the other hand, am looking at the whole picture
including all the devestation that Harkaman encountered or knew about in
SV and I'm thinking 'if this is what Merlin's slow, peaceful decay
looks like then I wouldn't want to see what the worst case scenario
looks like'. In SV, Harkaman states that even in his time, which
according to the Chronology is 850 years after the SSA war, there still
isn't more than a dozen and a half planets in the Old Federation that
have hyperdrive technology. Because the raid on Aton failed, we can
assume that space vikings left planets that were already civilized alone
and therefore the same number of civilized planets existed when vikings
first started raiding the Old Federation 250 years prior to SV. That
implies stagnation, not recovery which is plausible if whole populations
had been bombed out of existence by widespread wars.
So bottom
line for me is that I'm open to the possibility that either Merlin's
prediction of decline did become widespread after all OR something else
triggered the worst case scenario while you are assuming that prior
knowledge of the decline was not widespread and therefore everything
that actually did happen must therefore be what Merlin meant by the
slow, peaceful decay scenario.
I don't see any way of
definitively resolving this divergence of opinion because Piper didn't
explicitly talk about it one way or the other.
|
|
David Johnson
11-26-2008
04:04 UT
|
Dietmar Wehr wrote:
> I haven't checked this forum for a few days and I was prepared
> to leave the controvery over Merlin's projections but since
> you've described my point of view as silly, I feel compelled to
> respond.
My
apologies. I was not describing your _point_of_view_, merely your
choice to emphasize one portion of Merlin's "no knowledge" prediction
(i.e. "a slow crumbling, till everything is gone; then every planet
will start sliding back, in isolation, into barbarism") while
dismissing another portion (i.e. "at most, another century of
irregular
trade and occasional war between independent planets"). It makes no
sense to me to consider one part of Merlin's prediction while ignoring
another.
> If I understand you correctly, you're saying that the
> interstellar wars, which SV says began in the 11th century and
> ended in the 13th, AND which resulted in nuclear attacks on
> multiple planets(as evidenced by the crater at the city on
> Tanith among other planets) is in fact Merlin's no knowledge
> scenario
Yes, but . . .
> which is described in CC as "slow,peaceful decay"
. . . _also_ as resulting in "occasional war between independent planets."
> Our
> knowledge of what happened after the 9th century A.E. comes
> mainly from SV. Here's a particularly vivid description.
> [These are homemade barbarians. Workers and peasants who
> revolted to seize and divide the wealth and then found they'd
> smashed the means of
> production and killed off all the technical brains.
Notice
that this is a description of _planet-bound_ revolt, not of
interstellar warfare. Conflict like this on individual planets,
considered from an interstellar perspective in which these planets
have seceded from the Federation--or been abandoned by it--might
indeed look like a "slow, peaceful decay" of interstellar civilization.
> Survivors on
> planets hit during the Interstellar Wars, from the Eleventh to
> the Thirteenth Centuries, who lost the machinery of
> civilization]
This
passage refers to a type of planetary conflict different from
rebellion: that caused by "occasional war between independent planets."
> Now compare that description from SV with this description from
> CC.
> [it would be a bomb-type reaction. Rebellions. Overthrow of
> Federation authority, and then revolt and counterrevolt against
> planetary authority.
> Division along sectional or class lines on individual planets.
> Interplanetary wars; what we fought the Alliance to prevent]
>
> That is a description of the worst case scenario where knowledge
> of the eventual decline of the Federation becomes widespread.
No, the _Viking_ passage is not a description of the "full
knowledge," worse case scenario. There is no description of
_interstellar_ rebellion (against Federation authority) in the
passage you've cited from _Space_Viking_. Rather, it is a
description
of both revolt against local, planetary authority (which might look
like "slow, peaceful decay" on an interstellar scale) _and_
"occasional warfare between independent planets." In other words,
pretty much what Merlin predicted for the "no knowledge" scenario.
> I'm no longer going to say that Merlin goofed.
Great! Then we are in agreement on this point.
> The way to
> reconcile our two points of view is to conclude that somehow,
> knowledge of the eventual decline did become widespread in spite
> of efforts to keep it a secret.
I see no need for such a conclusion, nor evidence to support it.
> So Merlin got it right in terms
> of the 'what if' but something upset the carefully laid plans of
> Foxx Travis, the Maxwells et al.
Not before the Space Vikings showed up in the Old Federation. . . .
> Now, if in spite of this compromise, you still insist that the
> actual events in the 11th, 12th and 13th centuries A.E. really
> are the 'no knowledge' scenario
It's not a matter of compromise; it's a matter of assessing the evidence we have in Beam's writing.
> in spite of all the devastation
> that is described and implied in SV and elsewhere, then you have
> a strange sense of what constitutes a 'slow, peaceful decay'.
If
"slow, peaceful decay" was all the evidence we had of Merlin's
predictions I would agree, but we also have Merlin's description of
"occasional war between independent planets" as part of the "no
knowledge" scenario prediction.
> And with regards to your contention that the same computation
> mentions specifically the outbreak of interstellar wars as part
> of the "no knowledge" scenario, here is the actual quote from
> CC. [It was the same as before. In ignorance, the peoples of the
> Federation worlds would go on, striving to keep things running
> until they woreout, and then sinking into apathetic acceptance]
This
is one bit of Merlin's prediction, yes, but not the entirety of it.
I'm truly confused by your insistence upon overlooking Merlin's
prediction of "occasional war between independent planets" for the "no
knowledge" scenario.
Remember Ashmodai! Remember Belphegor!
David
--
"Diplomats! The best diplomat I know is a fully-activated phaser bank." - Mr. Scott, _Star_Trek_, "A Taste of Armageddon"
|
|
Dietmar Wehr
11-26-2008
03:11 UT
|
I haven't checked this forum for a few days and I was prepared to leave
the controvery over Merlin's projections but since you've described my
point of view as silly, I feel compelled to respond. I think I see a way
to reconcile both out points of view. If I understand you correctly,
you're saying that the interstellar wars, which SV says began in the
11th century and ended in the 13th, AND which resulted in nuclear
attacks on multiple planets(as evidenced by the crater at the city on
Tanith among other planets) is in fact Merlin's no knowledge scenario
which is described in CC as "slow,peaceful decay" Our knowledge of what
happened after the 9th century A.E. comes mainly from SV. Here's a
particularly vivid description.
[These are homemade barbarians.
Workers and peasants who revolted to seize and divide the wealth and
then found they'd smashed the means of
production and killed off all the technical brains. Survivors on
planets hit during the Interstellar Wars, from the Eleventh to
the Thirteenth Centuries, who lost the machinery of civilization]
Now compare that description from SV with this description from CC.
[it
would be a bomb-type reaction. Rebellions. Overthrow of Federation
authority, and then revolt and counterrevolt against planetary
authority.
Division along sectional or class lines on individual planets.
Interplanetary wars; what we fought the Alliance to prevent]
That
is a description of the worst case scenario where knowledge of the
eventual decline of the Federation becomes widespread. I'm no longer
going to say that Merlin goofed. The way to reconcile our two points of
view is to conclude that somehow, knowledge of the eventual decline did
become widespread in spite of efforts to keep it a secret. So Merlin got
it right in terms of the 'what if' but something upset the carefully
laid plans of Foxx Travis, the Maxwells et al.
Now, if in spite
of this compromise, you still insist that the actual events in the 11th,
12th and 13th centuries A.E. really are the 'no knowledge' scenario in
spite of all the devastation that is described and implied in SV and
elsewhere, then you have a strange sense of what constitutes a 'slow,
peaceful decay'. And with regards to your contention that the same
computation mentions specifically the outbreak of interstellar wars as
part of the "no knowledge" scenario, here is the actual quote from CC.
[It was the same as before. In ignorance, the peoples of the Federation
worlds would go on, striving to keep things running until they woreout,
and then sinking into apathetic acceptance]
The very next sentence after that in CC is talking about losing hope if knowledge of the decline becomes widespread
[Deprived of hope, they would turn to frantic violence and smash everything they most wanted to preserve.]
I really hope we can put this controversy to rest now.
|
|
David Johnson
11-21-2008
04:48 UT
|
Jon Crocker wrote:
> I wonder if Asimov read Piper, or vice versa?
I'd like to believe it was both.
> I'd have to check
> the publishing dates, but if you extrapolate forward you'd have
> the Merlin people working to establish the Merlin Plan when the
> Vikings derail the plan.
I
suspect that's pretty much what happened. The Vikings will have the
advantage because after nearly a millennium of Merlin's
prognosticating guidance, the Merlinolators are going to have a hard time grasping that Things Have Changed.
> Compare that to Asimov's Foundation
John Carr suggests, in the Introduction to _Federation_, that Beam's clumsier critics did just this.
> [and Second Foundation, but
> don't tell the First] working to further Seldon's Plan after the
> Mule derails their plan.
Yep.
It's the same idea. (As you know) I like to think it turns out a
bit differently in Beam's Future History. The Space Vikings may have
been the reason why we never hear any more about Merlin but I suspect
Merlin is also why we never hear any more about Trask's League of
Civilized Worlds--and why the Galactic Empire arises on Marduk rather
than on Tanith. . . .
Remember Ashmodai! Remember Belphegor!
David
--
"Violence is the last refuge of the incompetent." - Salvor Hardin
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Jon Crocker  11-20-2008
05:01 UT
|
I wonder if Asimov read Piper, or vice versa? I'd have to check the
publishing dates, but if you extrapolate forward you'd have the Merlin
people working to establish the Merlin Plan when the Vikings derail the
plan.
Compare that to Asimov's Foundation [and Second Foundation,
but don't tell the First] working to further Seldon's Plan after the
Mule derails their plan. Hope I didn't just spoil the Foundation series
for anyone, but it *is* fifty years old...
I'm pretty sure Piper
read at least some Asimov - Asimov's "Violence is the last refuge of
the incompetent" versus Piper's "Only the incompetent waited to the last
extremity to use violence" or words to that effect.
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David Johnson
11-19-2008
02:02 UT
|
Dietmar Wehr wrote:
> . . . Shanlee's
> description of the 'no knowledge' projection.
>
> [Just a slow crumbling, till everything is gone; then every
> planet will start sliding back, in isolation, into barbarism]
> What this says to me is that if every planet is in isolation,
> then they can't have the ability to conduct warfare with other
> planets and the slow crumbling implies that it was non-violent.
This
is silly! When Maxwell and Shanlee have Merlin run the very same
computation again the output mentions specifically the outbreak of
interstellar war as part of the "no knowledge" scenario. It seems now
like you're cherry-picking to support the conclusion you wish to
draw.
> But I think Piper's writings are sufficiently vague that a
> person can find something to support their interpretation
> regardless of what that interpretation is.
I
think we ought to look at the entirely of what Beam has left to us
and make assessments based upon all of it, not simply choose those
bits which support a particular view while ignoring other bits which
contradict it. In this case, the whole of what Beam wrote does not
seem to suggest that Merlin's predictions were wrong (at least not
until the Space Vikings showed up in the Old Federation).
Remember Ashmodai! Remember Belphegor!
David
--
"I'm a barbarian." - Captain Kirk, _Star_Trek_, "A Taste of Armageddon"
|
|
Dietmar Wehr
11-18-2008
16:19 UT
|
You've made an interesting point with your comments that our knowledge
of what actually happened is based on the interpretation of events thru
the eyes of Space Vikings. So rather than continue to argue over whether
the conflicts in the 11th and 12 century A.E. were widespread wars or
just minor skirmishes between a few planets, I'll refer you to Shanlee's
description of the 'no knowledge' projection.
[Just a slow
crumbling, till everything is gone; then every planet will start sliding
back, in isolation, into barbarism] What this says to me is that if
every planet is in isolation, then they can't have the ability to
conduct warfare with other planets and the slow crumbling implies that
it was non-violent. But I think Piper's writings are sufficiently vague
that a person can find something to support their interpretation
regardless of what that interpretation is. So rather than continue to
split hairs over this, I think I'll just make this my last posting on
this particular discussion and move on.
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David Johnson
11-18-2008
05:33 UT
|
Dietmar Wehr wrote:
> . . . followed by at most
> another 100 years of sporadic trade with occasional war between
> individual planets. So 854-1050(more or less) of peaceful
> decline and 1050-1150(max) of some limited war.
Herein
lies the difficulty. You've interpreted the phrase which reads "at
most, another century of irregular trade and occasional war between
independent planets" to be saying that the warfare _ends_ after a
hundred years. This phrase could just as easily be saying that it is
the "irregular trade" which lasts "at most, another
century" while the "occasional war" begins with that century
(following
the two centuries of Federation collapse, i.e. circa 1050 AE) and may
in fact continue beyond the mid-12th Century (i.e. circa 1150 AE).
It's true this phrase admits of either interpretation but consider how
this period seems to the Space Vikings, looking back half a millennia
in the future. Is it possible there are still "Interstellar Wars"
between those few remaining "civilized worlds" which we know survive
into the Space Viking era _after_ 1150AE? Iin _Space_Viking_ itself
we hear of such wars even having occurred much later, in the 17th
Century, AE, between Marduk and Odin and between Aton and Baldur.
Presumably there were earlier conflicts between other "civilized
worlds" as well, or between them and worlds which ultimately fell into
barbarism as a result.
Even with the "strict" interpretation
you've applied, all that's needed is fifty years--from about 1150 AE
to the dawn of the
Thirteenth Century in 1200 AE--of additional
conflict of one sort or another for the history as recorded by the
Space Vikings to match precisely that as predicted by Merlin for the
"no knowledge" scenario.
> How do we know
> that these wars are limited? Here's Piper's quote. [If we made
> public
> Merlin's prognosis, the end would come, not in two centuries but
> in
> less than one, and it wouldn't be a slow, peaceful decay] 'a
> slow, peaceful decay' doesn't sound to me like interstellar wars
> starting sometime after 1000 A.E. and ending sometime before
> 1299 A.E.
The
"slow, peaceful decay" refers to the period between the end of the
System States War (circa 850 AE) and the demise of the Federation
(circa 1050 AE), not to the period of warfare which Merlin predicts
will follow (and that the Space Viking describe as the "Interstellar
Wars"). Furthermore, we have no idea whether the warfare which is
labeled "the Interstellar Wars" by the Space Vikings is "limited" in
the sense suggested by the way in which Merlin describes the "sudden
outbursts of desperate violence" of the alternative, "full knowledge"
scenario. All we know is that Merlin predicts interstellar warfare
beginning circa 1050 AE (mid-11th Century) which last at least until
the mid-12th Century, AE, _and_ that the Space Vikings describe the
period from the Eleventh to the Thirteenth Centuries as "the
Interstellar
Wars." It may very well be that the Space Vikings see "the
Interstellar Wars" as "limited" in this sense, given that _all_
"civilized planets" are destroyed in the alternative scenario while
the actual history which unfolds has approximately eighteen worlds
which survive with the civilization of the Old Federation.
> Now it's true that even with the interstellar wars, a
> few individual planets like Marduk, Odin, etc. managed to retain
> enough technology to form the potential nucleus of a new
> Federation and my impression is that if Space Vikings hadn't
> continually attacked recovering Federation planets, then maybe
> the Federation or something like it might have re-established
> itself as Merlin predicted but that's something that has nothing
> to do with my contention that Merlin 'goofed'.
Ah,
but the arrival of the Space Vikings in the Old Federation is
_central_ to the divergence of Merlin's original predictions! The
Space Vikings are the wild card, the event that Merlin could not have
predicted because it had no knowledge of the flight of the Alliance
refugees from Abigor and their settlement of the Sword Worlds, and
therefore it could not predict their eventual return as interstellar
raiders. Once the Space Vikings show up in the Old Federation all of
Merlin's original predictions will start to have problems from that
point on.
> In other words, someone, somewhere does
> something that messes up Merlin's carefully constructed
> projections.
Oh,
it's always been clear to me that once the Space Vikings return to
the Old Federation all bets are off on Merlin's predictions, but that
happens _after_ the history of the collapse of the Federation and the
interstellar warfare which follows--as predicted by Merlin (in the "no
knowledge" scenario pursued by the Maxwells) and as reported in the
accounts of the Space Vikings.
Remember Ashmodai! Remember Belphegor!
David
--
"I find nothing interesting in the fact that we're about to blow up!" - Mr. Scott, _Star_Trek_, "That Which Survives"
|
|
Dietmar Wehr
11-18-2008
04:07 UT
|
I'll try to clarify what I'm getting at. Let's look at each of Merlin's
projections separately and compare them with what actually happened. If
no one knows about the impending decline then it's another 200 years
(starting from the end of the SSA war 854 A.E.) of slow (non-violent)
decline followed by at most another 100 years of sporadic trade with
occasional war between individual planets. So 854-1050(more or less) of
peaceful decline and 1050-1150(max) of some limited war. How do we know
that these wars are limited? Here's Piper's quote. [If we made public
Merlin's prognosis, the end would come, not in two centuries but in
less
than one, and it wouldn't be a slow, peaceful decay] 'a slow, peaceful
decay' doesn't sound to me like interstellar wars starting sometime
after 1000 A.E. and ending sometime before 1299 A.E. Now it's true that
even with the interstellar wars, a few individual planets like Marduk,
Odin, etc. managed to retain enough technology to form the potential
nucleus of a new Federation and my impression is that if Space Vikings
hadn't continually attacked recovering Federation planets, then maybe
the Federation or something like it might have re-established itself as
Merlin predicted but that's something that has nothing to do with my
contention that Merlin 'goofed'. So looking at the actual chronology of
150+ years of non-violent decline (854-1000+A.E.)followed by anywhere
from 101(1200 minus 1099A.E.) to 299(1299 minus 1000A.E.) years of
interstellar wars, it's clear that this isn't the 'slow, peaceful decay'
that Merlin was projecting as the 'best case scenario'.
If we
then examine the worst case scenario, which is the result of widespread
knowledge of the overall decline, we would expect to see a total
collapse of civilization within 100 years which translates into a point
in time before 954 A.E. The same quote as above says it all. [If we made
public Merlin's prognosis, the end would come, not in two centuries but
in less than one] plus this quote too. [and there would be a Galactic
night of barbarism for no one knows how many thousand years.] The quote
about barbarism for no one knows how many thousand years implies that
no planet has retained any star-spanning technology and again, that's
not what actually happened. Your contention that 150 years can be
rounded up to two centuries is not wrong but we can't automatically
assume that that's what Piper meant when he said two centuries. If he
meant 150 years, he could just as easily have written a century and a
half. I'm inclined to think that when he wrote 'two centuries' he meant
200 hundred years.
And so I wish to reiterate my point here that
when I claim that Merlin 'goofed', it's not to be critical of Piper but
rather to point out that I can imagine an explanation for why actual
events weren't as bad as the worst case collapse within 100 years and
wasn't as good as the slow, peaceful decay scenario. Without giving away
the plot of my sequel, I'll just give you all a hint using Piper's own
words.
[You know, Merlin can't predict what you or I would do under
given circumstances] In other words, someone, somewhere does something
that messes up Merlin's carefully constructed projections.
|
|
David Johnson
11-18-2008
03:15 UT
|
Dietmar Wehr wrote:
> you're not reading my posts carefully enough. I said that
> 1050 A.E. is the 11th century.
Fair enough.
> I've looked at the chronology on
> Zarthani.net. It says that interstellar wars begin some time
> after 1000 A.E. At a minimum,that is 150 years after the end of
> the System States War.
.
. . or about two hundred years (when rounded)--just what Merlin
predicted. I'm not understanding where you see a discrepancy here.
> Shanlee says that if Merlin's predictions
> are common knowledge, the wars will begin in less than 100 years
> ie Before 954 A.E.
And
yet, we know from _Space_Viking_, that the "Interstellar Wars" did
not being until the Eleventh Century. So, again, where's the problem?
Looks like Merlin's "no knowledge of their fate" collapse scenario
to me.
> I'm going to include every single word in CC
> that relates to Merlin's predictions
> ------------------------------------------------------------- -
> In two hundred years, there won't be any Terran Federation.
Which would be about 1050 AE--smack dab in the middle of the Eleventh Century.
> So we ran another computation; we added the data of
> publication of this prognosis.
[snip]
> If we made public
> Merlin's prognosis, the end would come, not in two centuries but
> in
> less than one, and it wouldn't be a slow, peaceful decay; it
> would be
> a bomb-type reaction. Rebellions. Overthrow of Federation
> authority,
> and then revolt and counterrevolt against planetary authority.
> Division along sectional or class lines on individual planets.
> Interplanetary wars; what we fought the Alliance to prevent.
Is
it your premise that this is something like the "Interstellar Wars"
described by the Space Vikings in the 18th Century? I doubt this
myself. There's an important difference in perspective here. To
Federation citizens like Shanlee and Maxwell the end of the
Federation
looks like the "end of the world," the end of civilization as they
know it. To the Space Vikings half a millennia (or more) in the
future the actual end of the Federation is just one point in a long
period of confilct and collapse.
> Left in ignorance, there might be a planet
> here
> and there that would keep enough of the old civilization to
> serve, in
> five or so centuries, as a nucleus for a new one.
This
would be about 1350 AE or so, which is just about time the first
Space Viking ship shows up in what to them is the Old Federation. And
what do they find there? A dozen and a half or so "civilized" worlds
which have managed to persevere among the general collapse and
barbarism which prevailed throughout most of what had been Federation
space. In other words, the nucleus of a new civilization. . . .
> The Terran Federation,
> overextended, had been cracking for a century before the War;
> the
> strain of that conflict had started an irreversible breakup. Two
> centuries for the Federation as such;
These
are the results from Maxwell's "rerun" of Merlin's calculation and
again we see that the end of the Federation comes about 1050 AE.
> at most, another century
> of
> irregular trade and occasional war between independent planets,
So
warfare breaks out after 1050 AE, which is how the Space Vikings have
recorded the history of the collapse of the Federation. So, again,
I'm not understanding the discrepancy you're seeing between what
Merlin predicted and what actually happened.
> Regardless of how anyone looks at it, what actually happened in
> the 10th, 11th and 12th century A.E. does not match either the
> slow decline of 200 years plus another 100 of occassional trade
> with sporadic wars between some planets
This
the part of your claim that I don't understand. What bits of
information from this era do we have which contradicts this? Are you
assuming that the warfare comes to an end after that additional
century? Might that phrase more accurately be read as saying that
what comes to an end after another hundred years is the "irregular
trade" rather than the "occasional war"?
Remember Ashmodai! Remember Belphegor!
David
--
"Computers
make excellent and efficient servants but I have no wish to serve
under them." - Mr. Spock, _Star_Trek_, "The Ultimate Computer'
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Otherwhen@aol.com
11-18-2008
03:03 UT
|
Interesting... I'll be looking forward to seeing how your "Cosmic Computer" sequel works out and what it explains.
Piper often worked by misdirection.
John F. Carr
_www.hostigos.com_ (http://www.hostigos.com)
Regardless of how anyone looks at it, what actually happened in
the 10th, 11th and 12th century A.E. does not match either the
slow decline of 200 years plus another 100 of occassional trade
with sporadic wars between some planets nor the sudden sposmadic violent collapse that should have started far sooner than it
actually did. I'm not saying Piper goofed. I'm saying that
there's a story in there that will explain the discrepancy and
that's what I'm going to try to accomplish with my sequel.
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Dietmar Wehr
11-18-2008
02:26 UT
|
David, you're not reading my posts carefully enough. I said that 1050
A.E. is the 11th century. You said the 11th century runs from 1000 A.E.
to 1099 A.E. That includes 1050 A.E. So we're both saying the same
thing. I've looked at the chronology on Zarthani.net. It says that
interstellar wars begin some time after 1000 A.E. At a minimum,that is
150 years after the end of the System States War. Shanlee says that if
Merlin's predictions are common knowledge, the wars will begin in less
than 100 years ie Before 954 A.E. I'm going to include every single word
in CC that relates to Merlin's predictions
------------------------------------------------------------- -
In two hundred years, there won't be any Terran Federation. The
Government will collapse, slowly. The Space Navy will disintegrate.
Planets and systems will lose touch with Terra and with one another.
You know what it was like here, just before the War? It will be like
that on every planet, even on Terra. Just a slow crumbling, till
everything is gone; then every planet will start sliding back, in
isolation, into barbarism."
So we ran another computation; we added the data of
publication of this prognosis. You know, Merlin can't predict what you
or I would do under given circumstances, but Merlin can handle
large-group behavior with absolute accuracy. If we made public
Merlin's prognosis, the end would come, not in two centuries but in
less than one, and it wouldn't be a slow, peaceful decay; it would be
a bomb-type reaction. Rebellions. Overthrow of Federation authority,
and then revolt and counterrevolt against planetary authority.
Division along sectional or class lines on individual planets.
Interplanetary wars; what we fought the Alliance to prevent. Left in
ignorance of the future, people would go on trying to make do with
what they had. But if they found out that the Federation was doomed,
everybody would be trying to snatch what they could, and end by
smashing everything. Left in ignorance, there might be a planet here
and there that would keep enough of the old civilization to serve, in
five or so centuries, as a nucleus for a new one. Informed in advance
of the doom of the Federation, they would all go down together in the
same bloody shambles, and there would be a Galactic night of barbarism
for no one knows how many thousand years."
The Terran Federation,
overextended, had been cracking for a century before the War; the
strain of that conflict had started an irreversible breakup. Two
centuries for the Federation as such; at most, another century of
irregular trade and occasional war between independent planets, Galaxy
full of human-populated planets as poor as Poictesme at its worst. Or,
aware of the future, sudden outbursts of desperate violence, then
anarchy and barbarism.
It was the same as before. In ignorance, the peoples of the Federation
worlds would go on, striving to keep things running until they wore
out, and then sinking into apathetic acceptance. Deprived of hope,
they would turn to frantic violence and smash everything they most
wanted to preserve.
------------------------------------------------------------- -----
Regardless
of how anyone looks at it, what actually happened in the 10th, 11th and
12th century A.E. does not match either the slow decline of 200 years
plus another 100 of occassional trade with sporadic wars between some
planets nor the sudden sposmadic violent collapse that should have
started far sooner than it actually did. I'm not saying Piper goofed.
I'm saying that there's a story in there that will explain the
discrepancy and that's what I'm going to try to accomplish with my
sequel.
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David Johnson
11-18-2008
02:26 UT
|
Dietmar Wehr wrote:
> Also, nowhere in CC does it say that after they
> open up Duplicate Force Command and find those gunboats that
> Klem Zareff immediately adds to his militia, that they bother to
> 'slap together a few nukes'. The nukes being used are deployed
> on missiles fired from the gunboats. Without actually saying so,
> it's implied that the gunboats came already loaded with
> munitions including nukes.
I
think this is exactly what happened. Something like this is also how
the Perales gang came into possession of their nukes--probably they
found them at Barathrum.
> If someone left a loaded M16 around a weapons plant, I
> would consider that also very reckless.
I
suspect the nukes that were left on Poictesme by the Third Force were
"small" tactical weapons (except for those that the Koschei
"colonists" found and threatened to use on Poictesme), as compared to
those with which the Federation destroyed Ashmodai and Belphegor and
Baphomet.
Remember Ashmodai! Remember Belphegor!
David
--
"I
would like to point out that we are quite capable of some 'wrath'
ourselves." - Mr. Scott, _Star_Trek_, "Who Mourns for Adonais?"
|
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David Johnson
11-18-2008
02:12 UT
|
Dietmar Wehr wrote:
> 1050 A.E. IS the 11th century. 100 years later ie. 1150 A.E. is
> the 12 century.
Nope.
You're using Common/Christian Era dating, not Atomic Era dating.
The First Century of the Atomic Era stretches from the "Year Zero" to
99 AE. The Eleventh Century of the Atomic Era begins in 1000 AE and
runs through 1099 AE. See the Future History chronology here:
http://www.zarthani.net/chronology.htm
David
--
"Doctor, do I understand him correctly? Are you casting _me_ in the role of Satan?" - Captain Kirk, _Star_Trek_, "The Apple"
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Dietmar Wehr
11-18-2008
01:52 UT
|
David, unless I'm reading your comment wrong, you seem to have just agreed with my point. Here is what you posted.
============================================================= ======
Shanlee
reports that Merlin's original prediction of the demise of the
Federation would occur in "two hundred years." Measured from the end of
the System States War that would be approximately 1050 AE. There is no
specific mention of any warfare in this citation, only of an end of the
Federation through slow collapse and decay.
> but from the actual chronology which you've quoted,
> the interstellar wars didn't start until some time in the 11th
> century A.E.
When
Maxwell runs the calculation again we learn that there will be "at
most, another century" of occasional warfare among the former worlds of
the Federation. That would take us into the mid-Eleventh Century, AE.
=========================================================== ===
1050 A.E. IS the 11th century. 100 years later ie. 1150 A.E. is the 12 century.
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Dietmar Wehr
11-18-2008
01:48 UT
|
My understanding of nuclear technology is that you need more than just
fissionable materials. The kinds of trigger devices that fission bombs
need are very sophisticated technology that you can't pick up at your
local DIY store. So the idea that the Perales gang, which are supposedly
farmers who lost their lands and turned to crime would a) want to
assemble their own nukes and b) have the technical expertise to do that
is too big of stretch for me. Also, nowhere in CC does it say that after
they open up Duplicate Force Command and find those gunboats that Klem
Zareff immediately adds to his militia, that they bother to 'slap
together a few nukes'. The nukes being used are deployed on missiles
fired from the gunboats. Without actually saying so, it's implied that
the gunboats came already loaded with munitions including nukes. Also
you contention that leaving nukes behind is more like leaving an M16
laying around a weapons plant isn't convincing either. An M16 without
bullets is harmless. Factories that make M16s probably don't make
bullets too. If someone left a loaded M16 around a weapons plant, I
would consider that also very reckless.
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David Johnson
11-17-2008
20:59 UT
|
Larry Talbot wrote:
> So, here is an entire planet with the resources to dig up their
> own fissionable and slap together a few nukes. Pretty much any
> technologically advanced planet could do that. Leaving nukes
> behind is less like leaving an M-16 laying in the playground
> than leaving an M-16 laying around in a weapons plant.
I
think that's clearly what is happening--except Perales and the
Maxwell's don't have to "slap together" nukes--they salvage them from
materiel left behind by the Third Fleet-Army Force. Post-War
Poictesme isn't Sixth Century Uller after all. . . .
David
--
"I mean, I know this world needs help. That's why some of my
generation are . . . kind of crazy and rebels, you know?" - Roberta Lincoln (Terri Garr), _Star_Trek_, "Assignment: Earth"
|
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David Johnson
11-17-2008
20:56 UT
|
Dietmar Wehr wrote:
> I based my contention that Merlin's predictions were 'off'
> because Merlin predicted the start of wars within less than a
> hundred years. The prediction was made right at the end of the
> war between the Federation and the SSA in 854 A.E. Therefore,
> less than 100 years from then would in the first half of 10th
> century A.E.
Shanlee
reports that Merlin's original prediction of the demise of the
Federation would occur in "two hundred years." Measured from the end
of the System States War that would be approximately 1050 AE. There
is no specific mention of any warfare in this citation, only of an end
of the Federation through slow collapse and decay.
> but from the actual chronology which you've quoted,
> the interstellar wars didn't start until some time in the 11th
> century A.E.
When
Maxwell runs the calculation again we learn that there will be "at
most, another century" of occasional warfare among the former worlds
of the Federation. That would take us into the mid-Eleventh Century,
AE.
> So to me there is clearly a delay of at least half
> a century but possibly as much as almost two centuries (early
> 10th to late 11th).
That
doesn't seem to fit with the data we have from the novel.
Furthermore, a half century is about the range of accuracy we have on
these predictions. When Shanlee or Maxwell reports "two hundred
years" that could mean anything from about one hundred fifty years
(less than that would simply be "one hundred years") to about two
hundred fifty years (more than that would be "three hundred years").
So there doesn't appear to be any "error" between what Merlin
predicts and the information we have on what actually happened.
Remember Ashmodai! Remember Belphegor!
David
--
"You
know, most of the wars they've been fighting, lately, on the
Europo-American Sector have been, at least in part, motivated by
rivalry for oil fields." - H. Beam Piper, "Temple Trouble," 1951
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|
Deleted by topic administrator 11-17-2008 20:32
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Larry Talbot
11-17-2008
18:55 UT
|
At the time of Piper's writings the average nuke would have been a lot
bigger than what we use today, I should think. But consider this, if a
college student had access to the equipment and fissionable materials,
he could make a nuke in the campus workshop (well, with the right
shielding and what-not.) The thing that keeps people from making nukes
today isn't the science, which has been published and might even be
available on the internet if you know where to look, but laying hands
on the plutonium. That's why our government is against Iran getting
nuclear power plants...the same fissionable material that goes into
those could also be stuffed into a warhead.
OK...
So, here is an
entire planet with the resources to dig up their own fissionable and
slap together a few nukes. Pretty much any technologically advanced
planet could do that. Leaving nukes behind is less like leaving an
M-16 laying in the playground than leaving an M-16 laying around in a
weapons plant.
Wolf
Ululo ergo sum.
http://wulfmann.wordpress.com/
>
>
< replied-to message removed by QT >
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Dietmar Wehr
11-17-2008
18:21 UT
|
I based my contention that Merlin's predictions were 'off' because
Merlin predicted the start of wars within less than a hundred years. The
prediction was made right at the end of the war between the Federation
and the SSA in 854 A.E. Therefore, less than 100 years from then would
in the first half of 10th century A.E. but from the actual chronology
which you've quoted, the interstellar wars didn't start until some time
in the 11th century A.E. So to me there is clearly a delay of at least
half a century but possibly as much as almost two centuries (early 10th
to late 11th).
I also have another comment to make. Writing my
sequel to Cosmic Computer had made me think about a lot of what Piper
wrote in CC. And there's one aspect of his work there that seems to me
to be completely inconsistent. During the battle for the Barathrum
spaceport, Piper makes it crystal clear that the Perales gang in
control of the spaceport had access to nuclear weapons. He also implies
that Klem Zareff's gunboats also had nuclear/atomic weapons. Given how
worried Foxx Travis was about the risk of the Federation's decline
turning into a violent collapse with wars and rebellions, how likely is
it that he would allow nuclear weapons to be left behind for anyone to
find and use? It's like leaving a loaded shotgun lying around a
children's playground. Granted that transporting military equipment
would have been expensive but nuclear warheads are far smaller than
tanks, gunboats, construction equipment, etc. Is Piper implying that
when 3rd Fleet-Army left Poictesme in their large hypership transports,
they didn't have room in those huge ships for a bunch of nuclear
warheads? I find that very difficult to swallow.
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Tom Rogers
11-10-2008
02:38 UT
|
Alan:
in re: /m70
WOW!
Thanks for sharing this!
Tom
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Alan Gutierrez
11-09-2008
17:09 UT
|
Although I've never submitted a claim to any of Piper's timeline worlds, I do have a vision of what some might be like...
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Alan Gutierrez
11-09-2008
17:08 UT
|
Dhergabar, commissioned by John F. Carr
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David "PiperFan" Johnson
11-09-2008
14:10 UT
|
Dietmar,
> Developer's Report - Poictesme and 10th Century A.E.
>
> I'm submitting a combined developer's report for both Poictesme
> and 10th Century A.E. The reason for this is my contention
> that the two are inextricably linked. While there is plenty of
> stuff happening elsewhere in the Federation ie. wars, etc., we
> don't have any
> specific details about specific events on specific planets.
Nevertheless,
it seems to me that the bulk of the events of (immediately, at least)
history happen elsewhere in the Federation in this era. What was
the first planet to secede from the Federation? What efforts did
the Federation undertake to discourage secession? Where did
loyalist Federation forces suffer their first defeat? What aspects
of internal Federation society and government began to crumble first?
The answers to all of these questions are found somewhere besides
Poictesme.
> Since the events in Cosmic Computer happened right at the end
> of the 9th Century A.E. the question of whether the
> Maxwell/Merlin Plan was successful, can only be answered by
> looking at the next century.
I think the Maxwell/Merlin Plan must have played out over a longer period than this. . . .
(And, again, there is more to "the beginning of the end" of the Federation than what happens on Poictesme.)
> Poictesme was the pivotal planet that determined the outcome of
> the System States Alliance War
Well,
I don't know about that. It was simply the location of the
Federation's headquarters. The outcome of the System States War
would have played out on the last Alliance worlds above and upon which
the final battles occurred.
> and the rediscovery of Merlin.
> Merlin's predictions as to the future of the Federation
> depended on whether it's predictions were made public
> throughout the Federation. In summary, these alternative
> predictions are:
> Baseline Scenario:
> If the rest of the Federation does not know of Merlin's
> predictions, then the Federation would slowly wind down over a
> period of about 2 centuries until interstellar commerce and
> communication slowly ground to a halt, like a flashlight that
> has a dying battery. Piper's
> description sounds for the most part as non-violent.
Here is Shanlee's reporting of Merlin's prediction in the event the public was unaware what was coming:
"In
two hundred years, there won't be any Terran Federation. The Government
will collapse, slowly. The Space Navy will disintegrate. Planets and
systems will lose touch with Terra and with one another. You know what
it was like [on Poictesme], just before the War? It will be like that on
every planet, even on Terra. Just a slow crumbling, till everything is
gone; then every planet will start sliding back, in isolation, into
barbarism. . . .
"Left in ignorance of the future, people would
go on trying to make do with what they had. . . . Left in
ignorance, there might be a planet here and there that would keep enough
of the old civilization to serve, in five or so centuries, as a nucleus
for a new one."
Later, when Conn Maxwell reruns this query, the report from Merlin is:
"The
Terran Federation, overextended, had been cracking for a century before
the War; the strain of that conflict had started an irreversible
breakup. Two centuries for the Federation as such; at most, another
century of irregular trade and occasional war between independent
planets, Galaxy full of human-populated planets as poor as Poictesme at
its worst."
And when Merlin is updated with information which
unfolded in the forty years since its original prognosis the result is
much the same: "In ignorance, the peoples of the Federation worlds would
go on, striving to keep things running until they wore out, and then
sinking into apathetic acceptance."
Nevertheless, rather than
merely a slowing fading light bulb that "occasional war between
independent planets" seems to suggest some "sparks" and "pops" before
the lights go out. . . .
> Worst Case Scenario:
> Widespread dissemination of Merlin's predictions would cause a
> much faster decline as individual planets attempt to save
> themselves at the expense of other planets, leading to
> revolts, interplanetary and interstellar wars and anarchy, all
> within less than one century.
Here's Shanlee's report of this possibility:
"If
we made public Merlin's prognosis, the end would come, not in two
centuries but in less than one, and it wouldn't be a slow, peaceful
decay; it would be a bomb-type reaction. Rebellions. Overthrow of
Federation authority, and then revolt and counterrevolt against
planetary authority. Division along sectional or class lines on
individual planets. Interplanetary wars; what we fought the Alliance to
prevent. . . . But if they found out that the Federation was doomed,
everybody would be trying to snatch what they could, and end by smashing
everything. . . . Informed in advance of the doom of the Federation,
they would all go down together in the same bloody shambles, and there
would be a Galactic night of barbarism for no one knows how many
thousand years."
When this query was run again by Maxwell
Merlin's response is that if the populace were "aware of the future [it
would mean] sudden outbursts of desperate violence, then anarchy and
barbarism." When this is query is updated with information on the
intevening four decades the results remains the same: "Deprived of hope,
they would turn to frantic violence and smash everything they most
wanted to preserve."
> What actually happened:
> According to the actual history, neither prediction came true in
> the strictest sense. Yes there was a violent collapse of the
> Federation but not as quickly as Merlin predicted and this
> violent collapse happened in spite of the fact that Merlin's
> overall gloomy prediction wasn't made public.
I
don't believe that's the case. We know that the Interstellar Wars
begin in the 11th Century--just about exactly the two centuries from
the end of the System States War that Merlin predicted.
> So from that
> perspective, Merlin's prediction of a slow, non-violent
> decline was way off. Is there an explanation for this huge
> miss?
I
think you're reading Merlin's prediction for the "secret" outcome too
mildly and the actual unfolding of events too harshly. It's not my
sense that Merlin's predictions "missed" at all.
> A possible answer may lie in the System States
> Alliance War. Conn Maxwell mentions something about economic
> reasons for the start of the War. In Graveyard of Dreams,
> there is quite a bit of information that isn't in Cosmic
> Computer including the
> statement that the SSA had [130 planets spread out across [130]
> systems]. What kind of economic reasons could there be for
> [130] planets to want to split off from a Federation that up
> to that point, seemed to have worked quite well?
The
Federation was _not_ working well for the planets of the System States
Alliance. The mercantilst core of the Federation was exploiting
the worlds of the periphery for its own economic gain and at their
expense. It seems likely that this practice would have continued
in the aftermath of the War and was perhaps most pronounced on the
occupied former Alliance worlds. (My guess is that Marduk was the
capital of the Alliance.)
> While it's
> not clear which 90 planets joined the SSA, it seems reasonable
> to assume that they were for the most part, planets that were
> further out from the center of Human-occupied space.
Presumably
they would be astrographically near to each other as well, as it would
have been quite difficult, logistically, to wage war against the
Federation if your worlds were dispersed about Federation space and
unconnected to one another.
That said, there were likely other
worlds that did not seceded yet were sympathetic to the Alliance cause.
Those sentiments would have endured into the post-War era.
> That
> would imply that they were less developed both economically
> and in terms of population size than the inner planets. Less
> developed economically might mean that they were
> dependent on imports of goods and technology that they weren't
> able (or allowed) to produce locally.
This
is the typical imperialist/colonialist model of which Beam would have
been aware among colonial nations across the developing world of his
time.
> If imported goods were
> flooding into these planets while outgoing goods were
> penalized by high shipping rates, something which Conn Maxwell
> hints at in terms of low prices for Poictesme Brandy, then
> forming some kind of economic zone where member planets would
> trade with each other instead of with Terra and the core
> planets, actually makes sense.
Yes, this was likely the source of the origin of the System States Alliance.
> If the
> SSA started out as an economic entity that evolved into a
> full-blown political entity, that could explain why the War
> didn't start until 3 years later.
Well,
there were three years between the secession of the Alliance and the
start of the War but obviously the Alliance was a political entity when
it seceded. Nevertheless, I agree it's likely the Alliance started
out as a (semi-autonomous?) economic entity _within_ the Federation.
> So what does this mean for the 10th Century A.E.? Those powerful
> commercial interests, who's short-sighted policies may have
> instigated the SSA War, would still be around and may perhaps be
> desperate to hang on to whatever level of interstellar trade
> still exists at the beginning of the 10th Century
Most definitely.
> so when
> Poictesme starts building and using it's own hyperspace
> freighters, that could be perceived as a direct threat to
> those same commercial interests.
Yes,
but the Maxwell's (and presumably Merlin) are aware of this risk and
likely took measures not to provoke the Federation, which likely
retained the capability well into the Tenth Century to respond
forcefully against a single planet like Poictesme.
> With the Federation's economy
> in decline, and tax revenues almost
> certainly declining as well, the Terran Space Navy will be
> shrinking from declining budgets. That suggests a power
> vacuum.
Probably, but this would have unfolded on many worlds across the Federation, not just on Poictesme.
> Merlin was able to understand the actions of large
> groups of people but corporations are controlled by a few
> individuals. Maybe Merlin wasn't able to predict what those
> powerful commercial interests would do when their own economic
> survival was threatened.
I
think Merlin predicted things as they unfolded pretty well.
Civilization in the Federation endured for two more centuries
after the end of the Systems States War, until "occasional war between
independent planets"--the Interstellar Wars--began in the Eleventh
Century and eventually wound down in the Thirteen Century.
Remember Ashmodai! Remember Belphegor!
David
--
"I
would like to point out that we are quite capable of some 'wrath'
ourselves." - Mr. Scott, _Star_Trek_, "Who Mourns for Adonais?"
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David Johnson
11-08-2008
18:54 UT
|
Dietmar,
> New Great Piper Mailing List Landgrab Claim!
>
> I wish to register my landgrab claim to a) the planet of
> Poictesme and b) the 10th century AE.
I've posted your claim to the Tenth Century on the Landgrab site here:
http://www.zarthani.net/landgrab.htm
I've not posted a separate claim for Poictesme because your
Developer's
Report seems focused on the Tenth Century, rather than upon
Poictesme's history throughout the entire Future History.
David
--
"Diplomats! The best diplomat I know is a fully-activated phaser bank." - Mr. Scott, _Star_Trek_, "A Taste of Armageddon"
|
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David Johnson
11-03-2008
05:05 UT
|
Developer's Report - Poictesme and 10th Century A.E.
From: Dietmar Wehr
Date: October 29, 2008 10:36:06 AM MST
Subject: Developer's Report
I'm
submitting a combined developer's report for both Poictesme and 10th
Century A.E. The reason for this is my contention that the two are
inextricably linked. While there is plenty of stuff happening
elsewhere in the Federation ie. wars, etc., we don't have any
specific
details about specific events on specific planets. Since the events
in Cosmic Computer happened right at the end of the 9th Century A.E.
the question of whether the Maxwell/Merlin Plan was successful, can
only be answered by looking at the next century.
10th Century A.E./Poictesme
Poictesme
was the pivotal planet that determined the outcome of the System
States Alliance War and the rediscovery of Merlin. Merlin's
predictions as to the future of the Federation depended on whether
it's predictions were made public throughout the Federation. In
summary, these alternative predictions are:
Baseline Scenario:
If
the rest of the Federation does not know of Merlin's predictions, then
the Federation would slowly wind down over a period of about 2
centuries until interstellar commerce and communication slowly ground
to a halt, like a flashlight that has a dying battery. Piper's
description sounds for the most part as non-violent.
Worst Case Scenario:
Widespread
dissemination of Merlin's predictions would cause a much faster
decline as individual planets attempt to save themselves at the
expense of other planets, leading to revolts, interplanetary and
interstellar wars and anarchy, all within less than one century.
What actually happened:
According
to the actual history, neither prediction came true in the strictest
sense. Yes there was a violent collapse of the Federation but not as
quickly as Merlin predicted and this violent collapse happened in
spite of the fact that Merlin's overall gloomy prediction wasn't made
public. So from that perspective, Merlin's prediction of a slow,
non-violent decline was way off. Is there an explanation for this huge
miss? A possible answer may lie in the System States
Alliance War.
Conn Maxwell mentions something about economic reasons for the start
of the War. In Graveyard of Dreams, there is quite a bit of
information that isn't in Cosmic Computer including the
statement
that the SSA had [130 planets spread out across [130] systems]. What
kind of economic reasons could there be for [130] planets to want to
split off from a Federation that up to that point, seemed to have
worked quite well? While it's not clear which 90 planets joined the
SSA, it seems reasonable to assume that they were for the most part,
planets that were further out from the center of Human-occupied space.
That would imply that they were less developed both economically and
in terms of population size than the inner planets. Less developed
economically might mean that they were
dependent on imports of
goods and technology that they weren't able (or allowed) to produce
locally. If imported goods were flooding into these planets while
outgoing goods were penalized by high shipping rates, something which
Conn Maxwell hints at in terms of low prices for Poictesme Brandy,
then forming some kind of economic zone where member planets would
trade with each other instead of with Terra and the core planets,
actually makes sense. It's not hard to imagine that the shipping
companies, that own the large 2,000 foot hyperships like the City of
Asgard (Cosmic Computer), are large powerful companies that may have
wanted to keep the outer planets from developing their own local
industries which would have resulted in lost markets and lower
shipping revenues. If the SSA started out as an economic entity that
evolved into a full-blown political entity, that could explain why the
War didn't start until 3 years later.
So what does this mean for the 10th Century A.E.? Those powerful commercial interests, who's short-sighted policies may have
instigated
the SSA War, would still be around and may perhaps be desperate to
hang on to whatever level of interstellar trade still exists at the
beginning of the 10th Century so when Poictesme starts building and
using it's own hyperspace freighters, that could be perceived as a
direct threat to those same commercial interests. With the
Federation's economy in decline, and tax revenues almost
certainly
declining as well, the Terran Space Navy will be shrinking from
declining budgets. That suggests a power vacuum. Merlin was able to
understand the actions of large groups of people but corporations are
controlled by a few individuals. Maybe Merlin wasn't able to predict
what those powerful commercial interests would do when their own
economic survival was threatened. My writing project will
address these questions.
Dietmar Wehr
[Please
make the following correction to my developer's report. The SSA had
130 planets spread out among 90 SYSTEMS, not the 90 planets that I had
mistakenly reported. Thanks.]
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